Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme and Agricultural Sector Performance in Nigeria

Authors

Keywords:

Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme, Agricultural Financing, Agricultural Output, ARDL, Government Expenditure

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme on the performance of the agricultural sector in Nigeria. The study is motivated by persistently low agricultural productivity in Nigeria despite the introduction of various credit intervention programmes designed to support farmers and raise output. The study adopts an ex-post facto research design, uses annual time-series data for 2000–2024 obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, and employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate the short-run and long-run relationships between the variables. The bounds test results confirm the presence of a long-run relationship between agricultural output and explanatory variables. The short-run estimates show that government expenditure on agriculture, loans fully repaid and the number of loans guaranteed are positively and significantly associated with agricultural output, whereas the value of loans guaranteed has a negative contemporaneous and a positive lagged effect. In the long run, government expenditure on agriculture and loans fully repaid have positive and significant relationships with agricultural output, the value of loans guaranteed has a negative and significant relationship, and the number of loans guaranteed is not statistically significant. The study concludes that the contribution of agricultural financing to agricultural production in Nigeria depends on the dimension of financing considered, not merely on the volume of credit guaranteed. It therefore recommends better-targeted government investment in agriculture, closer monitoring of loan utilization, and more effective loan repayment systems.

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References

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Published

25.10.2026

Data Availability Statement

The data used in this study were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The dataset consists of publicly available secondary time-series data covering the period 2000–2024. These data can be accessed through the official publications and website of the Central Bank of Nigeria. The processed data used for the analysis are available from the author upon reasonable request.

Issue

No. 43 (2026): In progress

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2026 Abass Adewale, Oluwatomiwo Sanni, Taofeek Oyedeji

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How to Cite

Adewale, A., Sanni, O., & Oyedeji, T. (2026). Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme and Agricultural Sector Performance in Nigeria. Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, 43. https://sceco.ub.ro/SCECO/article/view/653