Globalization and Inflation Nexus in South Africa: An Empirical Investigation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29358/sceco.v0i39.563Keywords:
inflation, globalisation, South Africa, autoregressive distributed lag, monetary policy, fiscal policyAbstract
The impact of globalisation on inflation is investigated for South Africa using annual time series data from 1990 to 2022. The study was motivated by the need to establish if the notion that globalisation leads to a decrease in prices in the domestic economy still holds water for South Africa. The study employs ARDL to explore the nature of the relationship between globalisation and inflation. Using trade openness as a measure of globalisation and the rate of change of the consumer price index as a measure of inflation, the study found globalisation to worsen inflation pressures in South Africa irrespective of the timeframe considered. Thus, South African authorities need to put measures in place to reduce the impact of globalisation on price levels. Policy implications are discussedDownloads
References
Alex, B., and Karen, M. (2008). Globalisation, import prices and inflation: how reliable are the ‘tailwinds’Bank of England Quarterly Buletin Q3.
Andeep, M. (2017). ‘The impact of globalisation on inflation in developing countries.’ Journal of Economic Development 42(3), pp. 41-60.
Benarbia, R., and Aiboud, K. (2023). ‘The impact of financial liberation on the monetary policy in Algeria.’ Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy 11(1), pp. 63-83. DOI:10.2478/mdke-2023-0005.
Disyatat, P., Rungcharoenkitkul, P. (2016). ‘Financial globalisation and monetary independence.’ BIS Paper No 88. Available from https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap88k.pdf. [Accessed 4 January 2024].
Feriansyah, F., Achsani, NA., Anggraeni, L. (2022). ‘The impact of fiscal and monetary policy.’ Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 58(4), pp. 1103-1124. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2021.1949281
Isaacs, G., and Kaltenbrunner, A. (2018). ‘Financialisaton and liberalization: South Africa’s new forms of external vulnerabilities.’ Competition and Change, 22 (4), pp. 437-463.
Keho, Y. (2017). ‘The impact of trade openness on economic growth: The case of Cote d’Ivoire’. Cogent Economics & Finance, 5(1), 1332820.
Mansouri, Z and Liouaeddine, M and Laamire, J, (2024). ‘The analysis of the link between the exchange rate and inflation: Evidence from a quantile regression.’ https://ssrn.com/abstract=4707059 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4707059
Mohanty, MS. (2012). ‘Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies.’ BIS Paper No 67. https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67.pdf#page=339. [Accessed 4 January 2024].
Mumtaz, S., and Younas, MZ. (2021). Impact of globalisation on major macroeconomic variables: Empirical evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Quantitative Methods 5(1), pp. 18-50. https://doi.org/10.29145/2021/jqm/050102.
Papademos, L., (2010). The effects of globalisation on inflation, liquidity and monetary policy. In Intenational Dimensions of Monetray Policy, Chapter, Editor Gali, J., and Gertler, MJ. University of Chicago Press, 593-608, http://www.nber.org/chapters/c0531.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y and Smith, R. (2001) ‘Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationship’. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), pp. 174-189.
SARB, (2024b), ‘About Us.’ Available from https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/about-us. [Accessed 13 February 2024].
SARB, (2024b). ‘Online Statistical Query.’ Available from https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/what-we-do/statistics/releases/online-statistical-query. 9Accessed 14 February 2024).
Stéphane, M.N., Noumba, I. (2024). ‘Does Being Globalized Matter for Happiness in African Countries? J Happiness Stud 25, 27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10902-024-00738-7.
the dti, (2024a). ‘Overview.’ Available from https://nationalgovernment.co.za/units/view/46/department-of-trade-industry-and-competition-the-dtic. [Accessed 13 February 2024].
the dtic, (2024b). ‘Trade agreements.’ Available from http://www.thedtic.gov.za/sectors-and-services-2/1-4-2-trade-and-export/market-access/trade-agreements/. [Accessed 13 February 2024].
The Republic of South Africa, (1993). ‘Trade Policy Review Mechanism.’ Available from https://docs.wto.org/gattdocs/q/GG/CRM/G37.PDF. [10 February 2024].
Wagner, H. (2001). ‘Implications of Globalisation for Monetary Policy.’ Available from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2001/wp01184.pdf. [Accessed 11 February 2024].
World Bank. (2024). ‘World Development Indicators.’ Available from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. [Accessed 8 June 2022].
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Mmathapelo De Jenga
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).