ANALYSIS OF THE MARRIAGES AND DIVORCES SEASONALITY IN ROMANIA COMPARED TO BACAU COUNTY DURING 2010-2013

Abstract

It is known that the number of marriages concluded in general in a geographic area follows a cyclical trend due primarily to religious factors. In this study we wanted to test whether this assumption is maintained in the past four years. On the other hand, we wanted to look at the indices of seasonality in Romania compared to those calculated for Bacau County to see if there are significant differences. The same aspects were analyzed for the divorce evolutions, to identify whether there is a seasonal trend in this case as well. After applying the methods of arithmetic mean and the mobile averages, there were calculated the seasonality indices and concluded that marriages are clearly cyclical developments every 12 months, with a peak in the third quarter, respectively in August, when the number is 3,5 times higher than the monthly average yearly in Bacau County and 2,3 times for Romania. In the case of divorces, the evolution is oscillatory, but without identifying a seasonal component. The average monthly number of divorces per 100 marriages is 29 in Romania and 36 in Bacau, with a maximum of 202 in the county of Bacau, observed in March 2010.