STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN INDICATORS IN EARLY EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM IN BACAU COUNTY COMPARED TO THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

An important factor in promoting economic development is the educational capital that should be seen as an investment in those who will generate economic growth. The present paper aims to carry out a statistical analysis of indicators in the field of education: early education, presentation based on statistical indicators disseminated by the two main official institutions: the National Institute of Statistics of Romania and the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova. In order to quantify the educational phenomenon in the two territorial units for statistics regarding the education market, a rather small number of indicators were taken into account due to lack of their dissemination on the desired administrative-territorial units.


Introduction
In addition to other information, the foundation of social and economic policies also requires the knowledge of some essential aspects of the educational system and its segments, as this field has obvious and defining implications on the evolution of a society. In a normal society, educational capital should underpin all social, political and economic decisions. The main statistical indicators in educational system refer to institutions, school population (the total number of preschoolers, pupils, and students involved in the educational process regardless of the form of ownership and the levels of education), teaching staff and logistics. Educational indicators are the basis for analyses that allow the foundation and adoption of decisions related to the conduct of economic activities, the results of policies adopted over a certain period of time and their effects. According to the International Standard Classification of Education -ISCED 2001, early childhood and preprimary education are included in early education category level 0, as the first stage in the educational system. The units operating at level 0 both in Romania and the Republic of Moldova are nurseries (for the institutionalization of children under the age of 3) and kindergartens (for children aged 3-5 years for Romania and 3-6 years for the Republic of Moldova). The reduced number of indicators analysed in the present paper is mainly due to their lack of availability for the desired territorial level (county for Romania and region for the Republic of Moldova).

Short methodological presentation
The intend was to provide a comparison between the two administrative territorial units in Romania and the Republic of Moldova concerning grouping disseminated statistical indicators according to the specific methodology. In conducting this analysis, international comparability in the field of education was taken into account, based on the International Standard Classification of Education ISCED 2011. Thus, according to the International Standard Classification of Education 2011, the educational system of the two states is as follows: In order to carry out the study, the most recently published indicators related to a 5-year period have been extracted from the databases of the National Institute of Statistics of Romania and the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova, so as to be able to follow their dynamic evolution. The types of units functioning in Romania are nurseries and kindergartens, the latter being independent or subordinated to other educational institutions, and the units functioning in the Republic of Moldova are nurseries, kindergartens, nurserykindergartens, school-kindergartens, and community centres. These units can provide regular care program, as well as extended program, and weekly or special program, in both private and public systems. Teaching staff are natural persons employed in the educational system that perform teaching activities within the educational and training process (full-time and part-time).
According to the methodology, they have to register only once at the unit where they are employed (where the employment record book is issued).
As for the number of children enrolled in nurseries and kindergartens, there are differences between the two countries. In Romania early childhood education corresponds to level 01, according to international education regulations (the new International Standard Classification of Education -ISCED 2011) and includes children aged 0-2 years, whilst preprimary education -level 02 -includes children aged 3-5 years and over.
In the Republic of Moldova, the age groups corresponding to early education are: 0-2 years for early childhood education (level 01) and 3-6 years for preprimary education (level 02).

Statistical analysis of indicators in early education (early childhood education and preprimary education)
Early education includes early childhood education and preprimary education. The disseminated statistical indicators are: school units (nurseries and kindergartens), enrolled children, teaching staff and infrastructure related to early education. With regard to the availability of these indicators for comparative analysis, it differs from one indicator to another. For instance, the infrastructure of the number of nurseries and kindergartens is disseminated only by the National Institute of Statistics at county level, whereas we do not have this information regarding the Central Region.  Taking into account age discrepancy in early education between the two educational systems: 0-5 years of age for Romania and 0-6 years of age for the Republic of Moldova, the number of children enrolled in nurseries and kindergartens can not be compared as numbers, but only as dynamics of this indicator. While there is a decrease in the number of children attending these units from year to year in Bacau County, the situation is completely opposite for the Central Region of the Republic of Moldova where their number increases (except for the last year of the analysis). In 2017 in Bacau County they were 1.7% fewer children institutionalized in early education system than in the previous year, while compared to 2013 their number decreased by 9.3%. Although in 2017 the number of children attending nurseries and kindergartens in the Central Region decreased by 1.0% compared to 2016, when compared to 2013, their number increased by 2.5%. The gross enrollment rate in early childhood education and preprimary education is an indicator used to highlight the level of participation in education during a given year. The proportion of enrollment in the educational process reflects the capacity of the educational system to allow children from early childhood and preprimary age groups to early education system. The calculation formula for gross enrollment rate is: where: RBC t = gross enrollment rate in educational system, during school year t; Et = total number of children enrolled in early education system, regardless of age, during school year t; Ptv = total population of age group v, the official age group corresponding to early education level.
In order to calculate the gross enrollment rate in early education, the official age group for Bacau County is 0-5 years of age, and the one for the Central Region of the Republic of Moldova is 0-6 years of age. As a percentage ratio of the population of official age group as at January 1st, the gross enrollment rates in early education system in Bacau County do not exceed 40% throughout the 2013-2017 period, with the highest rate registered in 2014 (40.1% ). Unlike the situation in Bacau County, the gross enrollment rates in early education institutions in the Central Region are increasing from one year to another, from 48.1% in 2013 to 49.3% in 2016 and 2017. The dynamics of children enrolled in Bacau County, compared to previous year, follows the same downward trend as that of the population of official corresponding age group in early education. The decreases of the number of enrolled children in Bacau County are higher than the decreases of the population of official age group (0-5 years), except for 2017, when the decrease in population compared to previous year is lower than that of the number of enrolled children (-1.7% versus -2.4%) and also 2014 (0.4 pp between the two dynamic values). In case of the Central Region, the situation is the opposite: the positive relative changes compared to previous year for children enrolled in nurseries and kindergartens are superior to the positive relative changes for population aged 0-6 years. An exception to this trend is observed in year 2017 compared to 2016, when the dynamics were negative, the decrease of the population      The existence of a link between the number of children enrolled in the early education institutions and the teaching staff in this education system can be determined by one of the parametric methods for determining the link, namely the regression equation.
According to the available data, both for Bacau County and for the Central Region, there is a direct link between the two indicators, ie the increase of 100 children enrolled in the early education institutions in Bacau County, the number of the related teaching staff would increase average of 6 teachers, while for the Central Region of the Republic of Moldova, with the increase of 100 children, the teaching staff would increase by an average of about 8 people. The calculation of the correlation coefficient, in both cases shows a close connection between the two variables, the calculated determinant coefficient indicates a weight of 85.1% of the influence of the number of enrolled children on the teaching staff existing in the early education institutions in Bacau County, in time for the situation in the Central Region, the influence is over 90% (90.9%). Similarly, it can be determined what type of link exists between the population of the official age group (for Bacau County it is 0-5 years and for the Central Region of the Republic of Moldova for 0-6 years) and the number of children enrolled in institutions.
Applying the same parametric method of link determination, it is also found in the case of the two variables that there is a direct link for both spatial areas taken in the analysis. The increase by 10 persons of the population has an average increase in the number of children enrolled in 4 persons in Bacau County, while at the level of the Central Region of the Republic of Moldova the increase with a child from the official age group would lead to an increase on average with a child enrolled in early education institutions. As can be seen from figure no. 12, the determinant coefficient calculated for Bacau County data shows an influence of 90.6% of the population of the official age group on the number of children enrolled in the early education system, while for the situation of the Central Region of the Republic of Moldova the influence is only 59.6%. The gross enrollment rate in early childhood education and preprimary education in Bacau County is lower than that of the Central Region of the Republic of Moldova, fluctuating from year to year, but without exceeding 40%, while in the Central Region the gross enrollment rate is on a rising trend from year to year, reaching a peak of 49.3% in 2016 and 2017. The average unit size in early education in the Central Region is higher than in Bacau County, with an average of 90 children per nursery/kindergarten compared to an average of only 39 children per unit in Bacau County. The number of teaching staff in the Central Region was significantly higher than in Bacau County, the dynamics of this indicator following an upward trend throughout the analysed period, while the continuous decrease in the number of enrolled children and the population of official age group corresponding to early education level in Bacau County also determined a decrease in the number of teaching staff from year to year. The average number of teaching staff members per unit is only 2 for the situation registered in Bacau County, with 5 persons below the average number of teaching staff members per nursery/kindergarten in the Central Region. The average number of children per teaching staff member in nurseries and kindergartens in Bacau County is 12, whereas the average number of children per teaching staff member in the Central Region of the Republic of Moldova throughout the entire analysed period is 16. The determination of the linear regression parameters for determining the existence of a link between the number of children enrolled in the early education institutions and the teaching staff in this educational system indicates both in Bacau County and the Central Region a direct link, with influences of 85% in the case of Bacau County and over 90% in the case of the Central Region. Practically, with the increase of 100 children enrolled in the early education institutions in Bacau County, the number of teaching staff involved would increase on average by 6 teachers, while for the Central Region of the Republic of Moldova, with the increase of 100 children, the staff didactic would increase on average by about 8 people. Also, when applying the regression model for the variables: the population of official age group and the enrolled children, there is a direct link between them, but with a lower intensity, the coefficient of determination in the Bacau County being slightly higher than that in the Center Region.